Feb 26, 2026
Brazil Soybean Estimate Lowered 1.0 Million Tons to 178.0 Million
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
Rainfall last week favored north central and southwestern Brazil. Over the weekend, rain once again favored northern and central Brazil. Dryness remains in southern areas especially southern Sao Paulo and northern Parana. The forecast for this week is calling for rain across northern and central areas with only light showers across southern areas.
Two concerns remain in Brazil - excessive rain in central Brazil resulting in some poor quality soybeans and a lack of rain in parts of Rio Grande do Sul. Rio Grande do Sul benefited from rain last week, but the coverage was uneven and the forecast is for more dryer-than-normal weather during the 6-10 day period. Therefore, the Brazilian soybean estimate was lowered 1.0 million tons this week to 178.0 million with a neutral bias. The estimate could continue moving lower especially if dryness returns to Rio Grande do Sul.
Brazil soybeans were 30% harvested as of late last week compared to 39% last year according to AgRural. This represents an advance of 9% for the week and is the slowest harvest pace since the 2020/21 season. The slower pace is due to delayed planting and wet weather slowing the harvest.
Mato Grosso - Soybeans in Mato Grosso were 65.7% harvested as of late last week compared to 66.1% last year and 57.2% average. This represents an advance of 14.7% for the week. The most advanced harvest is in the mid-north region where 90.5% of the soybeans have been harvested. The slowest harvest is in the southeastern region where 37.3% of the soybeans have been harvested. Below is the soybean harvest pace in Mato Grosso for February 20, 2026 from the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea).
Rio Grande do Sul - Emater reported last week that rainfall helped to rejuvenate some of the soybeans in Rio Grande do Sul. The rain was more comprehensive along the border with Uruguay and in the central part of the state. Emater indicated that soybean yields will be highly variable due to irregular distribution of rain and high temperatures and that soybean yields have already been negatively impacted, especially in shallow and sandy soils. Currently, the soybeans are 85% reproductive with 35% flowering and 50% filling pods.
The near-term forecast for the state is not encouraging. After satisfactory rains last week, dryer-than-normal conditions are forecasted to return this week and next week. The soybeans are filling pods and many farmers have already indicated that yield losses are inevitable.
Mato Grosso do Sul - Rainfall this growing season in southern Mato Grosso do Sul has been irregular and it is being reflected in soybean yields. In the municipality of Maracaju in southern Mato Grosso do Sul, soybean yields are reported to be in the range of 30 to 80 sacks per hectare (26.8 to 71.5 bu/ac).