Apr 21, 2026
Argentina Corn Estimate Increased 6 Million Tons to 60 Million
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
The 2025/26 Argentina corn estimate was increased 6 million tons this week to 60.0 million with a neutral bias. I have never increased an estimate in South America by this much in a period of one week, so I am very uncomfortable about this new estimate.
The most important news out of Argentina last week was the increase in the corn acreage. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange increased the corn acreage last week by 300,000 hectares to 8.1 million hectares (20.0 million acres). Previously, the Rosario Exchange had increased the corn acreage by 420,000 hectares to 8.5 million hectares (20.9 million acres). Both agencies cite recent tours across the core production areas and new satellite studies as the reason for the increase. The USDA is estimating the corn acreage at 7.5 million hectares (18.5 million acres).
It is hard to know who is correct about the corn acreage in Argentina. Why did it take until the corn was a quarter harvested before crop tours and satellite studies indicated a much larger acreage? I do not know the answer to that question. I do know that rainfall during March and April has helped the late planted corn, and now with a larger acreage, we need to increase the Argentina corn estimate.
In Argentina, the corn acreage is higher, yields are higher, and production estimates are higher. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange increased their Argentina corn estimate 4 million tons to 61.0 million while the Rosario Exchange increased the corn estimate 5 million tons to 67 million. The USDA is estimating the Argentina corn crop at 52 million tons.
Therefore, the 2025/26 Argentina corn estimate was increased 6 million tons this week to 60 million. I was planning on increasing the corn estimate 1-2 million tons due to the good yields being reported, but the new acreage numbers forced me to increase the estimate more than anticipated. I am very uneasy about the new acreage estimates because it seems very late in the growing season to make such significant adjustments.
Corn in Argentina was 24.7% harvested as of late last week with 80-85% harvested in the northern core and Entre Rios, less than 10% harvested in southern locations and 0% harvested in far northern Argentina.
Corn yields generally range from a high of 10,050 kg/ha (159.7 bu/ac) in the northern core region to a low of approximately 6,500 kg/ha (103.3 bu/ac) in various southern locations. The nationwide average last week was 8,750 kg/ha (139.1 bu/ac), which is up 3 bushels from last week.
Below is the corn harvest pace in Argentina for April 15, 2026 from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange.
Below is the weekly evolution of corn yields and production in Argentina. The orange line represents 2025/26 and the blue line is 2024/25. The right margin are yields in quintals per hectare (qq/ha). The left margin is the accumulated production thus far in millions of tons. One quintal is 100 kilograms. Therefore, a yield of 87.5 qq/ha equals 8,750 kg/ha or 139.1 bu/ac. To convert kg/ha to bu/ac multiply the kg/ha times 0.0159. (Example: 87.5 qq/ha x 100 = 8,750 kg/ha x 0.0159 = 139.1 bu/ac.). This is a generic conversion and puts you in the "ball park" because it assumes standard moisture and test weights.
2024/25 Argentina Weekly Corn Yields*
| Date | Average Yield | Percent Harvested |
|---|---|---|
| March 11, 2026 | 8,270 kg/ha – 131.5 bu/ac | 9.4% |
| March 18, 2026 | 8,400 kg/ha – 133.5 bu/ac | 13.0% |
| March 26, 2026 | 8,480 kg/ha – 134.8 bu/ac | 15.2% |
| March 31, 2026 | 8,530 kg/ha – 135.6 bu/ac | 19.0% |
| April 3, 2026 | 8,550 kg/ha – 135.9 bu/ac | 21.6% |
| April 15, 2026 | 8,750 kg/ha – 139.1 bu/ac | 24.7% |
*Source: Buenos Aires Grain Exchange Weekly Report